1
St Edmundsbury Local Development Framework
Site Allocations Development Plan Document
SITE SUBMISSION FORM
We are currently identifying sites with development potential as part of the Local
Development Framework. This form should be completed to suggest sites that you think
should be considered by the Council for their availability for development over the next
20 years.
Please return this form and a map clearly identifying the boundary of the site by:
Friday 9 May 2008 to:
Planning & Engineering Services
St Edmundsbury Borough Council
PO Box 122
Bury St Edmunds
IP33 3YS Or email it to: LDF@stedsbc.gov.uk
ALL INFORMATION SUBMITTED WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE FOR PUBLIC INSPECTION AND MAY
BE THE SUBJECT OF PUBLIC CONSULTATION AS PART OF THE LDF PROCESS
Guidance
1 Please use a separate form for each site and complete the form to the best of your
knowledge.
2 Do submit sites that:
would be available for development or redevelopment in the next 20 years;
and
are more than 0.2 hectares (0.5 acres).
3 Do not submit sites that:
already have planning permission for development unless a new and different
proposal is likely in the future; and
are outside of the St Edmundsbury local authority area.
4 Details of existing constraints can be obtained from a number of sources.
Information on floodplains can be found at www.environment-agency.gov.uk
Information on nature designations can be found at
www.natureonthemap.org.uk
Details of special landscape areas and conservation areas can be obtained
from the existing replacement Local Plan at www.stedmundsbury.gov.uk
Site Plan
This form should be accompanied by a site plan on a recognised Ordnance Survey base.
The site plan should clearly illustrate the following information:
The exact boundary details (coloured red) of the site that you would like
considered
Potential access points (vehicular and non-vehicular)
Those areas identified as brownfield (shaded blue) and/or greenfield land
(shaded green)
2
1. CONTACT DETAILS
Your name
Organisation
Address
Postcode
Telephone
Email address
Your agents (if applicable)
Organisation
Address
Postcode
Telephone
Email address
Site Owner
name
Address
Postcode
Please indicate if you have the consent of the landowner to promote this site for inclusion
in the Local Development Framework: Yes / No
STANTON NURSERIES LTD
C/O AGENT
NEIL ROWLEY
SAVILLS PLC
20 GROSVENOR HILL, LONDON
0207 409 5929
nrowley@savills.com
FORMER GARDEN NURSERY, DUKE STREET, STANTON
IP31
3
2. SITE DETAILS
Site name
Location
Total Area (ha)
Of which (ha)
is on brownfield land
Of which (ha)
is on greenfield land
Ordnance Survey Grid Reference
Current use(s) (please specify last use if vacant)
Suggested uses
3. DEVELOPMENT CONSTRAINTS
Is the suggested use subject to any of the following constraints?
Constraint Yes/No Comments
Flood Plain
Nature designation
Land contamination
Conservation Area
Special Landscape Area
How close is the nearest bus stop?
…………………metres
Bus service numbers…………………….
How close is the nearest primary
school? …………………metres
How close is the nearest shop that will
provide day-to-day food needs? …………………metres
How close is the nearest doctor’s
surgery? …………………kilometres
DUKE STREET NURSERY
3.3
1.5
1.8
EASTING: 596583.8 NORTHING: 273831.0
VACANT
RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OR RESIDENTIAL CARE DEVELOPMENT
YES
NO
NO
NO
NO
PART OF SITE IS FLOOD ZONE BUT BUILDINGS COULD BE LOCATED TO AVOID THE FLOOD 
PRONE AREAS
APPROX 300
304, 338, 339, 463, 479
APPROX 600
(STANTON COMMUNITY PRIMARY 
SCHOOL)
APPROX 300
APPROX 0.25
(STANTON NHS HEALTH 
CENTRE)
4
If there are constraints to development, what interventions could be made to overcome
them?
Policy constraints: How does the proposal conform with current national, regional or local
planning policies?
4. OTHER INFORMATION
Has the viability of the site been tested? If so, please include details.
Level of developer interest, if known:
Low Medium High
Likely time frame for development:
0-5 years 6-10 years 10-15 years Beyond 15 years
Any further information: (Continue on separate sheets if necessary) Please supply
four copies of any supportive statements or an electronic version.
PRELIMINARY FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT DEMONSTRATES THAT LOCATING BUILDINGS
ON THE EASTERN PART OF THE SITE WHERE THE EXISTING BUILDINGS ARE LOCATED
WOULD PROTECT THE AMENITY OF THE RESIDENTS ON DUKE STREET AND ENSURE
PLEASE SEE ATTACHED SHEET
SEE ATTACHED SHEET
THAT THE AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING ARE AVOIDED.
WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT A VIABLE DEVELOPMENT COULD BE ACHIEVED.
St Edmundsbury Local Development Framework
Site Allocations Development Plan Document
SITE SUBMISSION SUSTAINABILITY APPRAISAL
SA Objective
Please indicate whether your
proposal will have a +ve or –ve
contribution towards each
objective
1 To improve the health of the population overall
2 To maintain and improve levels of education and skills in the population overall
3 To reduce crime and anti-social activity
4 To reduce poverty and social exclusion
5 To improve access to key services for all sectors of the population
6 To offer everybody the opportunity for rewarding and satisfying employment
7 To meet the housing requirements of the whole community
8 To improve the quality of where people live and to encourage community participation
9 To improve water and air quality
10 To conserve soil resources and quality
+VE
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
+VE
+ VE
+ VE
+VE
+VE
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL
SA Objective
Please indicate whether your
proposal will have a +ve or –ve
contribution towards each
objective
11 To use water and mineral resources efficiently, and re-use and recycle where possible
12 To reduce waste
13 To reduce the effects of traffic on the environment
14 To reduce contributions to climate change
15 To reduce vulnerability to climatic events
16 To conserve and enhance biodiversity
17 To conserve and where appropriate enhance areas of historical and archaeological
importance
18 To conserve and enhance the quality and local distinctiveness of landscapes and
townscapes
19 To achieve sustainable levels of prosperity and economic growth throughout the plan area
20 To revitalise town centres
21 To encourage efficient patterns of movement in support of economic growth
22 To encourage and accommodate both indigenous and inward investment
+VE
+VE
NEUTRAL
N/A
N/A
+VE
N/A
+VE
+VE
+VE
+VE
+VE
CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON
Savills Research
© Savills Commercial Ltd
Page 1
SAVILLS RESEARCH
CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR
DUKE STREET, STANTON
IP31 2AA
February 2008
CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON
Savills Research
© Savills Commercial Ltd
Page 2
1.0 Executive Summary
The catchment population currently includes 28,900 people of retirement age and around 8,100 people
over the age of 80-years. By 2026 these figures will have grown by approximately 70% and 93%
respectively (figure 1.0); requiring the care provision for another 6,700 people over 80-years.
Afluence of Retired Seniors is fairly average overall but here are 2,500 households that are occupied by
people with Above Average or High Affluence (1% more than GB average) reflecting demand for a high
quality offer. In addition there is an over-representation of High Affluent Empty Nesters 13% compared to
the national average of 10% of all households. These people are the potential future occupants of
retirement developments in the catchment.
Owner occupation is above average by around 4%, while 3% more homes in the catchment are owned
outright compared to the national average. Houses sold between £100-300k accounts for 71% of homes
sold in 2006. Therefore, while not significantly affluent this suggests that a large proportion of the elderly
people in the catchment have equity sufficient to need to provide their own care.
Figure 1.0: Population Projected Growth
0
20
40
60
80
100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Year
% Population Change from 2004
GB. All Ages GB. Over 65 GB. Over 80
Stanton All Ages Stanton Over 65 Stanton Over 80
Source: ONS; Savills Research
The catchment is currently under-supplied in nursing care bed provision. The number of nursing beds per
1,000 people over-80-years is below the national average and broadly represents a current shortfall of
approximately 100 nursing beds in the catchment.
The shortfall in nursing supply is balanced by an over-supply of residential beds. However, while this does
mean that overall the provision of care beds in the catchment is close to the national average, it also
means that a large number of people who require nursing care are having to be located in residential care.
Residential care homes may have care facilities inadequate to the needs of people that would be better
served in nursing homes and therefore more nursing care shoul really be provided in the catchment.
In addition to this problem, we have identified that there are also a number of homes in the catchment that
have a problem with their CSCI quality rating. We have calculated that 35% of nursing beds and 32% of
residential car beds in the catchment do not meet the national average score. This could represent further
indication that the nursing care needs of people in the catchment are not being met.
Finally, we have forecast that without further development the shortfall in nursing care provision in the
catchment could increase to 260 beds by the year 2016.
The proposed development at Duke Street, Stanton would help the catchment shortfall by providing
nursing supply that should better meet the needs for modern older people.
CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON
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© Savills Commercial Ltd
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2.0 Introduction
We have been asked to assess the development potential for a nursing home in terms of supply, demand
and suitability at Duke Street in Stanton, Suffolk.
Our methodology requires an examination of the demand and supply issues within a development
catchment. For the purposes of this report we have undertaken the analysis within a 15-mile drive distance
catchment.
Our analysis uses census, geo-demographic and land registry data to draw conclusions on elderly care
demand.
Using in-house statistics on the national care market, we have modelled the current and future need for
care home and nursing beds in the catchment.
Note that when we refer to national figures this relates to GB and the mapping data used on all of our
maps is provided from Bartholomew. The catchment has been modelled using MapInfo Drivetime
software.
Map 2.0: Catchment used in analysis
Source: Savills Research; MapInfo
CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON
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© Savills Commercial Ltd
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3.0 Demographic Analysis
3.1 Census
3.1.1 Population Profile
The population of the catchment in 2006 was estimated to be 156,700. Of this approximately 18% were of
retirement age (28,900); around 1.5% more than the national average representation (figure 3.1.1).
Each of the five age groups recorded for the population at retirement age are marginally over-represented
compared to the national average (see Figure 3.1.1).
Most significantly from a nursing care provision perspective there is an over-representation of people in
the over-80-years category, which is the category most likely to require nursing care facilities. This
category constitutes over 5% of total population with 8,100 people.
Figure 3.1.1: Population Profile
0
2
4
6
65 - 69 years 70 - 74 years 75 - 79 years 80 - 85 years 85+ years
% Population
15-Miles GB
Source: ONS; Savills Research
3.1.2 Population Projections
We have taken the ONS latest District population projections by age group and remodelled them
to the catchment (figure 3.1.2).
Figure 3.1.2: Population Projected Growth
0
20
40
60
80
100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Year
% Population Change from 2004
GB. All Ages GB. Over 65 GB. Over 80
Stanton All Ages Stanton Over 65 Stanton Over 80
Source: ONS; Savills Research
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© Savills Commercial Ltd
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The figures show that the 15-mile catchment is predicted to have population growth above the national
average. The whole population within the catchment is expected to grow by 17%, compared to 14%
nationally, by 2026.
The retired population is expected to grow significantly faster with growth of 65% in the next two decades.
This is notably higher than the national rate of 46% and will result in total population of almost 47,600
people over 65 years by the year 2026; an increase of 18,700 people.
The population of over-80-years is seeing growth in population of 83% by 2026, compared to a 66%
growth in the same age group nationally over the same period. This would result in a population of
approximately 14,800 people over-80-years in the catchment (table 3.1.2).
This is equivalent to an increase of around 2,000 by 2016 and 6,700 by 2026. Clearly, the care needs of
these people will have to be met.
Table 3.1.2: Population Projected Growth
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
All ages 156,700 163,300 170,200 176,900 183,100
Over 65-years 28,900 33,100 39,000 43,100 47,600
Over-80-years 8,100 8,900 10,100 12,000 14,800
Source: ONS; Savills Research
3.1.3 Employment Occupations
Unemployment in the catchment is low at 2.2%; about 1.2% under the national average.
The catchment demonstrates a bias towards occupations associated with Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing,
Manufacturing and Wholesale retail industry (table 3.1.3).
Table 3.1.3: Employment Industry
Industry 15-Miles GB
(Ages 16 - 74 years in employment)
Σ
%
%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 2,744 3.8 1.6
Mining and Quarrying 88 0.1 0.3
Manufacturing 12,961 17.8 14.8
Utilities 510 0.7 0.7
Construction 5,111 7.0 6.8
Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repairs 13,569 18.6 16.6
Hotels and Restaurants 3,183 4.4 4.8
Transport, Storage, Communications 4,550 6.2 7.0
Financial Intermediation 1,891 2.6 4.7
Real Estate and Business Activities 7,710 10.6 12.8
Public Administration and Defence 4,920 6.7 5.8
Education 4,346 6.0 7.7
Health and Social Work 7,576 10.4 10.9
Other 3,762 5.2 5.2
Source: ONS; Savills Research
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© Savills Commercial Ltd
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In line with the above, the Skilled trades, Process plant and Elementary occupations are the most over-
represented groups. These groups account for 27,000 (37%) jobs; 5% more than the national average
(figure 3.1.3).
Other occupations like Professional Occupations, Technical, Secretarial and Sales are all under
represented by about 5% compared to the national average.
Figure 3.1.3: Employment Occupations
0
5
10
15
20
M anagers and
Senior Officials
Professio nal
Occupations
Associate
Professio nal
and Technical
Administration
and Secretarial
Skilled Trades Personal
Service
Sales and
Customer
Service
Process, Plant
and M achine
Operatives
Elementary
Occupations
% 16 - 74 years in employment
15-Miles GB
Source: ONS; Savills Research
3.2 Personicx Geodemographics
Personicx is a geodemographic classification produced by Acxiom. The household classification
determines the dominant Lifestage and Affluence profile of the catchment at Output Area level. Personicx
also allows us to identify the affluence characteristics of the two lifestages most relevant to the care home
development - Empty Nesters and Retired Seniors.
Table 3.2.1 shows the individual breakdown of each group. The inset chart assists in identifying under or
over-representation of an individual group, where blue indicates a below average and red indicates an
above average representation.
Retired Seniors are clearly the most relevant Lifestage for a care home development. In the catchment,
there are a total of about 20,300 Retired Seniors accounting for 31% of all households compared to 26%
nationally. Empty Nesters, which are the future occupiers of care homes also have significant
representation in the catchment. Almost 19,300 households are classified as Empty Nesters and make up
to 30% for the catchment households; this group is about 21% nationally.
Affluence in the two relevant Lifestage categories have different characteristics. While, High Affluence and
Below Average Affluence are over represented in Retired Seniors group, mid-Affluence groups are over-
represented in the Empty Nesters category. This over-representation in the mid range of Affluence is
demonstrated by the long red spikes in table 3.2.1.
Households of High Affluence, Average Afluence and Above Average Affluence in Retired Seniors stand
at 11%; similar to national average. For Empty Nesters the same group is about 25% of households
compared to 17% nationally. This suggests that the affluence in the catchment elderly population will
increase in the future.
The profile has important implications on the kind of elderly care required by the people in the catchment.
In general, about 20% of all households in the catchment are Retired Seniors or Empty Nester of Average
Affluence to High Affluence, this is about 4% higher than the national average.
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© Savills Commercial Ltd
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Table 3.2.1: Profile of Catchment Lifestage with Affluence
Count % % Index
Lifestage and Affluence Grouping
for
area
for
area
for
GB
GB
avg=100
Empty Nesters - High Affluence
667 1 3 30
Empty Nesters - Above Average Affluence
8,097 12 7 184
Empty Nesters - Average Affluence
7,915 12 7 178
Empty Nesters - Below Average Affluence
1,574 2 2 145
Empty Nesters - Low Affluence
1,046 2 2 65
Retired Seniors - High Affluence
2,480 4 3 134
Retired Seniors - Above Average Affluence
2,127 3 3 97
Retired Seniors - Average Affluence
2,935 4 5 93
Retired Seniors - Below Average Affluence
5,449 8 3 291
Retired Seniors - Low Affluence
7,309 11 12 94
Source: Axciom; Savills Research
3.3 Housing Equity
3.3.1 Housing Tenure
Housing tenure statistics show that owner occupation is above the national average by 4% (figure 3.3.1).
Households that are owned with a mortgage are over-represented by 1% and households owned outright
account for 3% more homes than the national average.
During the last 10 years, house prices have increased significantly and this has had a huge impact on the
affordability of care of the older generation. Those who own their own home and many of whom have paid
off their mortgages have seen a vast increase in their equity. This not only means that more people than
ever before haveto pay for their own care when they get older but also that their expectations of the qualiy
that they can afford to get has also increased.
A total of over 72% of the catchment has equity tied up in their home and almost 32% of all households in
the catchment have completely paid off a mortgage. People who have paid off their mortgages are most
likely to be the more mature age groups, such as Retired Seniors (table 3.3.1).
Social rented accommodation accounts for 5% fewer homes than the national average.
Table 3.3.1: Housing Tenure
Housing Tenure 15-Miles GB
(All households)
Σ
%
%
Owned 46,259 72.1 68.3
Owns Outright 20,380 31.8 28.9
Owns with Mortgage or loan 25,607 39.9 38.7
Shared Ownership 272 0.4 0.6
Social Rented 9,812 15.3 19.9
Private Rented 6,277 9.8 9.6
Living Rent Free 1,787 2.8 2.2
Source: ONS; Savills Research
0 100 200 300
CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON
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Figure 3.3.1: Housing Tenure
0
20
40
60
80
Ow ned Ow ns Outright Ow ns w ith
Mortgage or loan
Shared
Ow nership
Social Rented Private Rented Living Rent Free
% Households
15-Miles GB
Source: ONS; Savills Research
3.3.2 House Prices
Data recorded by the Land Registry has collected the number of residential transactions that have
occurred in the catchment during 2006 by price band (figure 3.3.2). This gives an excellent view of the
house prices in the catchment and therefore the equity available to the retired population.
Elderly people may own homes at the top end of the scale due to ‘climbing the property ladder’ during their
working lives. Although at some point retired people may downsize during retirement, it is important to
consider this when looking at average values.
There were over 3,300 house transactions recorded for the catchment during 2006, with only 1% of
houses sold for over £500k, compared to 3% nationally.
Table 3.3.1: House Transactions by Price Band
£0-100k
£100-
150k
£150-
200k
£200-
300k
£300-
400k
£400-
500k
£500-
600k
£600-
800k
£800k-
1m
Over
£1m
15-Miles 4.5 30.8 26.8 22.4 6.7 7.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1
England +
Wales 15.1 26.7 23.1 21.7 7.0 3.1 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.5
Source: Land registry; Savills Research
Figure 3.3.2: House Transactions by Price Band 2006
0
10
20
30
40
£0-100k £100-150k £150-200k £200-300k £300-400k £400-500k £500-600k £600-800k £800k-1m Over £1m
%
15-Miles England + Wales
Source: Land registry; Savills Research
The data shows an over-representation of houses sold between £100k and £300k, with only 1% of houses
sold over £500K, compared to over 3% nationally. these households accounting for about 71% of
transactions (table 3.3.1).
CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON
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© Savills Commercial Ltd
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Map 3.3.2 shows that average house prices in the area are predominantly dominated in the range of £150-
200k. However, in the south-west of the catchment the average house price is around £250K-350K.
This clearly provides an indication of the equity available to people on selling their homes that could be
used for healthcare provision. While the number of social care clients is likely to be low, retired people are
unlikely on the whole to be able to attend a ‘high end’ care offer.
Map 3.3.2: Average House Prices 2006
Source: Land registry; Savills Research
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© Savills Commercial Ltd
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4.0 Analysis of Existing Supply
4.1 Competition
There are essentially two kinds of care home or care bed that we examine here. For reasons of clarity in
this report we use their past designations of residential and nursing homes/beds, although they are now
more usually termed respectively as care homes and care homes with nursing. When we refer to care
homes in the catchment we are actually describing homes of both designations.
Our analysis of care homes shows that there are 41 homes in the catchment; 11 of these are nursing
homes (table 4.1 and map 4.1). There are 541 nursing care beds in the catchment which represents 39%
of the total supply for the Stanton catchment compared to 46% on a national level. This could reflect an
undersupply of nursing care facilities in the catchment, something that is explored further in section 4.2.
Conversely residential beds in the catchment account for 61% of all beds in the catchment compared to
54% nationally.
En-suite care rooms have become more popular in recent years and the catchment has a high proportion
of its residential supply provided with en suite facilities. However, nursing care has below average
numbers of en-suites, which reflect inadequate care facilities in the catchment.
The figures relating nursing beds and particular single and en-suite facilities would suggest that there is a
lack of quality nursing accommodation in the catchment.
Table 4.1: Existing Care Home Provision
15-Miles UK
Σ
% total %
Homes 41
Residential Homes
30 73
67
Nursing Homes
11 27
33
Residential Beds 838 61
54
En Suite
419 30
21
Single
567 41
37
Shared
271 20
17
Nursing Beds 541 39
46
En Suite
307 22
25
Single
465 34
37
Shared
76 6
9
Source: Savills Research
Map 4.1 shows existing provision for elderly care in the catchment with concentrations in the towns within
the catchment.
With regards to quality of provision, we have examined data from CSCI and identified homes in the
catchment that are above or below the national average in terms of their overall CSCI rating. In the
catchment, around 35% of the total nursing beds appear to be in lower quality accommodation than the
national average and about 32% of all residential beds do not meet the national average.
Clearly, this raises concern about whether there is sufficient quality care accommodation available in the
catchment.
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Map 4.1: Existing Care Home Provision
Source: Savills Research
4.2 Supply Ratios
Understanding the supply in context of the local catchment population is simplified using supply ratios. A
supply ratio counts the number of care beds available per 1,000 retired people and 1,000 people over the
age of 80-years in the catchment. These figures are compared to the national average in order to identify
under or over-provision (table 4.2 and figure 4.2).
Overall our analysis shows that for the Stanton catchment there is under-supply of care beds for the local
area with 48 care beds per 1,000 people over 65 compared to 49 on a national level.
However if we drill down to this supply type we can see that there is an over-supply of residential beds of 3
beds per 1,000 people over-65-years and an under-supply of nursing care with 4 fewer beds per 1,000
people over-65-years than the rest of the country.
Using the supply ratio for nursing beds we can see that there is an under-supply of beds, with 67 beds per
1,000 people over-80-years, compared to 79 beds per 1,000 in UK as a whole. This suggests an
immediate need for around 100 beds to meet local demand.
Currently, it would appear overall that there is sufficient supply of all beds as there are 171 beds per 1,000
for the over-80’s population in the catchment which is inline with national figures. However, it is clear that
the over-supply of residential beds is compensating for the under-supply of nursing beds, It is likely that
CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON
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some of this residential care stock is being utilised to service the nursing care market that is under-
supplied and therefore people with nursing needs might be living in accommodation that is inadequate for
their personal requirements.
The overall supply indicates a need for further elderly care accommodation. The proposed nursing care
provision at Stanton would go some way to addressing the gap in supply.
Table 4.2: Care beds in catchment per 1,000 people
Beds per 1,000 Over 65 Beds per 1,000 Over-80
Catchment All beds Residential Nursing All beds Residential Nursing
15-Miles 48 29 19 171 104 67
UK 49 26 23 171 91 79
Source: Savills Research
Figure 4.2: Care beds in catchment per 1,000 people over-80-years
0
50
100
150
200
All beds Residential Beds Nursing Beds
No. of beds per 1,000 adults over 80yrs
15-Miles UK
Source: Savills Research
4.3 Catchment Attrition
Our attrition analysis examines the dynamics of the care home catchment over the last five year period.
Attrition is monitored by the number of homes, or care beds that have been lost to the catchment during
that time (table 4.3 and figure 4.3).
Table 4.3: Care Home Attrition in Catchment 2002-2007
Residential Homes Nursing Homes Total Homes Residential Beds Nursing Beds
Total
Beds
Total Gained 5 0 5 80 0 80
Total Lost 6 3 9 92 16 108
Net Attrition 1 3 4 12 16 28
Source: Savills Research
The Stanton catchment has been fairly static over the last five years in terms of the change in overall
beds. There has been a net loss of 3 nursing care homes in the catchment over this period, resulting in a
loss of 16 beds in the catchment.
During the period 2002-2007 there have been 5 opening and 6 closures in the residential care market.
This resulted in a loss of 12 beds.
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As this is a relatively small catchment it is to be expected that there will be only a little attrition, however
given that the catchment remains under-supplied with nursing care beds this may indicate a need for more
development.
Figure 4.3: Care beds Attrition 2002-2006
0
50
100
150
Total Added Total Removed
Total Bedss
Residential Beds Nursing Beds
Source: Savills Research
However, with no growth in number of beds but an increasing population it will soon result in further under-
supply of nursing care.
4.4 Future Supply
Figure 4.4 shows the increasing requirement of nursing beds in the future due to catchment population
growth and care attrition.
If based on the current national provision of nursing beds we assume that there should be about 79
nursing beds for every 1,000 people over the age of 80-years and the attrition rates continue for the next
ten years as they have for the last five, we can see that the gap in the nursing market between the supply
and requirement continue to widen. By 2016, this would still mean an under-supply of nursing beds of
almost 290 beds.
Even if the attrition does not continue at the same rate and the provision remains same as present day,
the short fall will approximately be about 260 beds by 2016.
Figure 4.4: Predicted Shortfall in Provision in the 15-mile Catchment
509
800
540
0
400
800
2001 2006 2011 2016
Beds in catchment
Nursing beds beds required
Source: Savills Research
CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON
Savills Research
© Savills Commercial Ltd
Page 14
5.0 Catchment Potential
5.1 Demographic Demand
With a population of approximately 156,700 people, the catchment has 28,900 people of retirement age,
just above the national average. A total of 11% of the total catchment households are classified as
average and above Affluence Retired Seniors.
Owner occupation is over 4% above the national average for housing tenure, with proportion of homes
outright also above average by almost 3%. This means that there is a significant amount of equity locked
up in property in the district, particularly for the elderly who are the most likely age group to have moved
up the housing ladder and paid off their debt.
Clearly, owning your own property is an important source of equity for providing care in the late stages of
life and in this catchment given the high proportion of home ownership and the high proportion of retired
affluent people there should be a sufficient demand for further quality care developments in Stanton
catchment.
Of all housing transactions made in 2006, there is an over-representation of transactions in the £100-
£300k price bracket. This reinforces the fact that there is equity available to be tapped into although this
could limit peope from affording a very high quality offer.
There are increasing numbers of retired citizens using housing equity to pay for high standard of care.
This means that equity release is an important consideration when determining whether the elderly can
afford to provide their own care.
The population of retirement age is set to increase by 70% over the next 20 years which will mean there
will be almost 18,700 more people aged 65 or over by the year 2026.
The demographic skew and the rate of growth of the population suggest that this is a good location to
develop a nursing home. The affluence and tenure statistics indicate that while the majority of retired
people in the catchment are likely to have to provide their own care, they may be limited to the quality of
establishment that they can afford.
5.2 Supply Requirement
Considering the age, propriety and quality of present care home accommodation in the catchment we may
actually be over estimating the current supply of care facilities that are suitable for the Stanton Catchment
retired population in the Stanton catchment.
It is important to consider also the lack of nursing care bed supply in the catchment. The undersupply of
nursing care and the over-supply of residential care would suggest that the residential stock is being used
as a substitute for adequate nursing care and people are therefore being inadequately homed.
Our care bed supply ratios indicate that to meet national levels of provision there should be approximately
79 nursing beds per 1,000 people over the age of 80-years. In the catchment this figure is below average
with just 67 nursing beds per 1,000. Therefore there is an immediate need for around 100 nursing beds in
the catchment and 260 nursing beds by 2016 to meet the growing elderly population.
Although the catchment is over supplied in terms of residential care there is an immediate need for new
nursing beds to meet the specific catchment demand now and in the future. The current residential supply
will have to be looked at in greater detail to see if it is of high enough quality to serve the catchment
demographic as it stands.
The proposed development would assist in meeting the shortfall in nursing beds for the five years but
beyond that the catchment would require additional development.
CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON
Savills Research
© Savills Commercial Ltd
Page 15
6.0 Important Note
Finally, in accordance with our normal practice, we would state that this report is for general informative
purposes only and does not constitute a formal valuation, appraisal or recommendation. It is only for the
use of the persons to whom it is addressed and no responsibility can be accepted to any third party for the
whole or any part of its contents. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor
may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior
consent, which will not be unreasonably withheld.
As is customary with market studies, our findings should be regarded as valid for a limited period of time
and should be subject to examination at regular intervals.
Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that the data contained in it is correct, no responsibility can
be taken for omissions or erroneous data provided by a third party or due to information being unavailable
or inaccessible during the research period. The estimates and conclusions contained in this report have
been conscientiously prepared in the light of our experience in the property market and information that we
were able to collect, but their accuracy is in no way guaranteed.
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Red Line - Site Boundary
Blue - Brownfield
Green - Greenfield
Black Circle - Potential pedestrian access
Purple Circle - Potential vehicular / pedestrian access
0m 50m 100m150m
Duke Street Nursery
Stanton
© Crown Copyright 2008. All rights reserved. Licence number 100020449. Plotted Scale - 1:2500
a
Local Development Framework
Site Submission
7 May 2008
Additional Information
3. Development Constraints
Policy Constraints: How does the proposal conform with current national, regional or local planning
policies?
The site is a former garden nursery located on the northern side of the village of Stanton beyond the A143
Stanton Bypass. A number of large buildings occupy the central area of the site and the open areas are
overgrown.
The site is designated as Countryside in the Local Plan, although it is located between two
Housing Settlements.
Planning Policy Statement 1 Delivering Sustainable Development 2004 (PPS1) sets out the Government’s
general approach to development. Paragraph 3 identifies sustainable development as the core principle
underpinning planning. In their approach to sustainable development planning authorities should promote the
most efficient use of land through higher density, mixed use development and the use of suitably located
previously developed land and buildings. Planning should seek actively to bring vacant and underused
previously developed land and buildings back into beneficial use to achieve the targets the Government has
set for development on previously developed land.
PPS1 paragraph 27 states that planning authorities should seek to promote urban and rural regeneration to
improve the well being of communities, improve facilities, promote high quality and safe development and
create new opportunities for people living in these communities.
Planning Policy Statement 3 Housing (PPS3) (2006) Paragraph 11 states that ‘planning should deliver a
flexible, responsive supply of land – managed in a way that makes efficient and effective use of land,
including re-use of previously-developed land, where appropriate’. PPS3 states that the national annual
target is that at least 60 per cent of new housing should be provided on previously developed land.
Planning Policy Statement 7 Sustainable Development in Rural Areas 2004 (PPS7) states that one of the key
objectives is to raise the quality of life and the environment in rural areas. This includes focusing most
development in, or next to existing towns or villages and discouraging the development of ‘greenfield’ land.
Paragraph 8 identifies that a key aim of government policies is to aim to offer everyone the opportunity of a
decent home. The needs of all in the community should be recognised, including those in need of affordable
and accessible special needs housing in rural areas.
The site is previously developed land adjacent to a built up area. In principle, redevelopment of the site
accords with government guidance in PPS1, PPS3 and PPS7. The site is sustainably located within walking
distance of Stanton, a Rural Service Centre, and therefore is easily accessible to local amenities and
services. Given the rural location, Stanton is well served in terms of facilities and in particular bus services.
The site should be considered for residential development, potentially including specialist residential care
accommodation (in accord with Policy H7 of the Local Plan).
Residential development of this previously developed site would meet identified needs (see Section 4 below)
in the area and support government objectives. Overall it is considered that a sensitively designed residential
development will have a significantly more positive impact on this rural location than the existing derelict
buildings and overgrown vegetation.
4. Other Information
The Structure Plan sets a target of 440 homes per annum for Bury St Edmunds. The Annual Monitoring
Report (AMR) December 2007 for St Edmundsbury Borough Council identifies that between 1996-2007 on
a
average 496 dwellings were completed. Between 2004-05 only 170 homes were built and 2005-06 was also
significantly below target at 367 completions.
The Annual Monitoring Report (AMR) December 2007 states that the Suffolk Structure Plan 2001 is the
relevant plan for monitoring purposes as the East of England Plan Regional Spatial Strategy is in draft.
However, as it is at an advanced stage significant weight needs to be attached to it. The Draft East of
England Plan Panel Report June 2006 increased the Regional Spatial Strategy minimum housing targets for
St Edmundsbury from 8,000 to 10,000. Based on completions between 2001-2006 530 homes will need to be
built per annum between 2006-2021 to achieve the minimum targets. The average annual completion of 496
dwellings between 1996-2007 will therefore need to increase significantly
The AMR includes 629 units from unidentified urban capacity sites. However, there can be no certainty that
the UCS unidentified sites are deliverable within the plan period. There is no assessment that the sites meet
the PPS3 paragraph 54 tests of deliverability (i.e are available, suitable and achievable). As such, it is not
considered that the UCS small sites can properly make a contribution to housing supply in the plan period.
The AMR does not demonstrate a five year supply of housing in PPS3 terms. 2007/08 is the only year that
projected completions on identified sites (653 units) exceeds the housing target. However for 2011-2012 the
projected completions on identified sites only contribute 30 dwellings to the supply target. PPS3 states that
LPAs should identify sufficient specific deliverable sites to deliver housing in the first five years. To be
considered deliverable, sites should at the point of adoption of the relevant Local Development Document be
available, suitable and achievable. The Department for Communities and Local Government has produced an
advice note ‘Demonstrating a Five Year Supply of Deliverable Sites’ which advises that information
supporting the site allocation of a planning permission must clearly demonstrate that there is a reasonable
prospect of housing being delivered within 5 years. The advice note also indicates that it may be necessary to
discuss with relevant developers/owners and/or analyse current housing market conditions to make an
informed judgement on this. There is no evidence in the AMR to demonstrate this research. Therefore in
accordance with paragraph 71 of PPS3 Local Planning Authorities ‘should consider favourably planning
applications for housing, having regard to the Policies in PPS3 including the considerations in paragraph 69
where they cannot demonstrate an up-to-date five year supply of deliverable sites.
The discussion above illustrates that there is not a robust 5 year supply of housing for the borough as
required by PPS3. Growth in the urban areas can not be relied upon on its own to meet the housing targets.
Residential development on suitable previously developed sites in rural areas, particularly those on the edge
of housing settlements, should be supported in addition to urban growth to ensure the targets are met.
Paragraph 3.8 of the Social Profile section of the Core Strategy report highlights that the ‘65+ age group
experienced the greatest increase between 1991 and 2001 with a 48% jump’. As a result it is important that
the evidence base assesses the availability of facilities in the borough for this age group.
A report produced by Savills Research Department assessing the care home supply and demand for Stanton
and the surrounding area (see copy attached) concludes that the study catchment is currently under supplied
in care provision. According to the report care bed supply ratios indicate that to meet national levels of
provision there should be approximately 79 nursing beds per 1000 people over 80. There are 67 beds per
1000 people over 80 years in the catchment. Therefore there is an immediate need for around 100 nursing
beds in the catchment and 830 nursing beds by 2028. This need must be acknowledged within the evidence
base.
As well as meeting proven need, the provision of modern nursing care accommodation has other benefits: -
- The provision of modern purpose built accommodation will encourage more people to move into care
accommodation. Often elderly people remain in their homes longer than may be advisable because
of a shortage of quality accommodation choices.
- Encouraging residents into care accommodation reduces hospital visits and reliance on the health
service.
a
- It releases under-occupied family sized homes back onto the market.
There is therefore an identified need for both general housing and care accommodation. The development of
new facilities to meet these needs must be supported in the Local Development Framework. This site could
make a valuable contribution to meeting these needs.
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