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St Edmundsbury Local Development Framework

Site Allocations Development Plan Document

SITE SUBMISSION FORM

We are currently identifying sites with development potential as part of the Local

Development Framework. This form should be completed to suggest sites that you think

should be considered by the Council for their availability for development over the next

20 years.

Please return this form and a map clearly identifying the boundary of the site by:

Friday 9 May 2008 to:

Planning & Engineering Services

St Edmundsbury Borough Council

PO Box 122

Bury St Edmunds

IP33 3YS Or email it to: LDF@stedsbc.gov.uk

ALL INFORMATION SUBMITTED WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE FOR PUBLIC INSPECTION AND MAY

BE THE SUBJECT OF PUBLIC CONSULTATION AS PART OF THE LDF PROCESS

Guidance

1 Please use a separate form for each site and complete the form to the best of your

knowledge.

2 Do submit sites that:

 would be available for development or redevelopment in the next 20 years;

and

 are more than 0.2 hectares (0.5 acres).

3 Do not submit sites that:

 already have planning permission for development unless a new and different

proposal is likely in the future; and

 are outside of the St Edmundsbury local authority area.

4 Details of existing constraints can be obtained from a number of sources.

 Information on floodplains can be found at www.environment-agency.gov.uk

 Information on nature designations can be found at

www.natureonthemap.org.uk

 Details of special landscape areas and conservation areas can be obtained

from the existing replacement Local Plan at www.stedmundsbury.gov.uk

Site Plan

This form should be accompanied by a site plan on a recognised Ordnance Survey base.

The site plan should clearly illustrate the following information:

 The exact boundary details (coloured red) of the site that you would like

considered

 Potential access points (vehicular and non-vehicular)

 Those areas identified as brownfield (shaded blue) and/or greenfield land

(shaded green)



1. CONTACT DETAILS

Your name

Organisation

Address

Postcode

Telephone

Email address

Your agents (if applicable)

Organisation

Address

Postcode

Telephone

Email address

Site Owner

name

Address

Postcode

Please indicate if you have the consent of the landowner to promote this site for inclusion

in the Local Development Framework: Yes / No

STANTON NURSERIES LTD

C/O AGENT

NEIL ROWLEY

SAVILLS PLC

20 GROSVENOR HILL, LONDON

W1K 3HQ

0207 409 5929

nrowley@savills.com

FORMER GARDEN NURSERY, DUKE STREET, STANTON

IP31



2. SITE DETAILS

Site name

Location

Total Area (ha)

Of which (ha)

is on brownfield land

Of which (ha)

is on greenfield land

Ordnance Survey Grid Reference

Current use(s) (please specify last use if vacant)

Suggested uses

3. DEVELOPMENT CONSTRAINTS

Is the suggested use subject to any of the following constraints?

Constraint Yes/No Comments

Flood Plain

Nature designation

Land contamination

Conservation Area

Special Landscape Area

How close is the nearest bus stop?

…………………metres

Bus service numbers…………………….

How close is the nearest primary

school? …………………metres

How close is the nearest shop that will

provide day-to-day food needs? …………………metres

How close is the nearest doctor’s

surgery? …………………kilometres

DUKE STREET NURSERY

3.3

1.5

1.8

EASTING: 596583.8 NORTHING: 273831.0

VACANT

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OR RESIDENTIAL CARE DEVELOPMENT

YES

PART OF SITE IS FLOOD ZONE BUT BUILDINGS COULD BE LOCATED TO AVOID THE FLOOD 

PRONE AREAS

APPROX 300

304, 338, 339, 463, 479

APPROX 600

(STANTON COMMUNITY PRIMARY 

SCHOOL)

APPROX 300

APPROX 0.25

(STANTON NHS HEALTH 

CENTRE)



If there are constraints to development, what interventions could be made to overcome

them?

Policy constraints: How does the proposal conform with current national, regional or local

planning policies?

4. OTHER INFORMATION

Has the viability of the site been tested? If so, please include details.

Level of developer interest, if known:

Low Medium High

Likely time frame for development:

0-5 years 6-10 years 10-15 years Beyond 15 years

Any further information: (Continue on separate sheets if necessary) Please supply

four copies of any supportive statements or an electronic version.

PRELIMINARY FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT DEMONSTRATES THAT LOCATING BUILDINGS

ON THE EASTERN PART OF THE SITE WHERE THE EXISTING BUILDINGS ARE LOCATED

WOULD PROTECT THE AMENITY OF THE RESIDENTS ON DUKE STREET AND ENSURE

PLEASE SEE ATTACHED SHEET

SEE ATTACHED SHEET

THAT THE AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING ARE AVOIDED.

WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT A VIABLE DEVELOPMENT COULD BE ACHIEVED.

St Edmundsbury Local Development Framework

Site Allocations Development Plan Document

SITE SUBMISSION SUSTAINABILITY APPRAISAL

SA Objective

Please indicate whether your

proposal will have a +ve or –ve

contribution towards each

objective

1 To improve the health of the population overall

2 To maintain and improve levels of education and skills in the population overall

3 To reduce crime and anti-social activity

4 To reduce poverty and social exclusion

5 To improve access to key services for all sectors of the population

6 To offer everybody the opportunity for rewarding and satisfying employment

7 To meet the housing requirements of the whole community

8 To improve the quality of where people live and to encourage community participation

9 To improve water and air quality

10 To conserve soil resources and quality

+VE

NEUTRAL

+VE

+ VE

+VE

NEUTRAL

SA Objective

Please indicate whether your

proposal will have a +ve or –ve

contribution towards each

objective

11 To use water and mineral resources efficiently, and re-use and recycle where possible

12 To reduce waste

13 To reduce the effects of traffic on the environment

14 To reduce contributions to climate change

15 To reduce vulnerability to climatic events

16 To conserve and enhance biodiversity

17 To conserve and where appropriate enhance areas of historical and archaeological

importance

18 To conserve and enhance the quality and local distinctiveness of landscapes and

townscapes

19 To achieve sustainable levels of prosperity and economic growth throughout the plan area

20 To revitalise town centres

21 To encourage efficient patterns of movement in support of economic growth

22 To encourage and accommodate both indigenous and inward investment

+VE

NEUTRAL

N/A

+VE

N/A

+VE

CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON

Savills Research

Page 1

SAVILLS RESEARCH

CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR

DUKE STREET, STANTON

IP31 2AA

February 2008

CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON

Savills Research

Page 2

1.0 Executive Summary

• The catchment population currently includes 28,900 people of retirement age and around 8,100 people

over the age of 80-years. By 2026 these figures will have grown by approximately 70% and 93%

respectively (figure 1.0); requiring the care provision for another 6,700 people over 80-years.

• Afluence of Retired Seniors is fairly average overall but here are 2,500 households that are occupied by

people with Above Average or High Affluence (1% more than GB average) reflecting demand for a high

quality offer. In addition there is an over-representation of High Affluent Empty Nesters 13% compared to

the national average of 10% of all households. These people are the potential future occupants of

retirement developments in the catchment.

• Owner occupation is above average by around 4%, while 3% more homes in the catchment are owned

outright compared to the national average. Houses sold between £100-300k accounts for 71% of homes

sold in 2006. Therefore, while not significantly affluent this suggests that a large proportion of the elderly

people in the catchment have equity sufficient to need to provide their own care.

Figure 1.0: Population Projected Growth

100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Year

% Population Change from 2004

GB. All Ages GB. Over 65 GB. Over 80

Stanton All Ages Stanton Over 65 Stanton Over 80

Source: ONS; Savills Research

• The catchment is currently under-supplied in nursing care bed provision. The number of nursing beds per

1,000 people over-80-years is below the national average and broadly represents a current shortfall of

approximately 100 nursing beds in the catchment.

• The shortfall in nursing supply is balanced by an over-supply of residential beds. However, while this does

mean that overall the provision of care beds in the catchment is close to the national average, it also

means that a large number of people who require nursing care are having to be located in residential care.

Residential care homes may have care facilities inadequate to the needs of people that would be better

served in nursing homes and therefore more nursing care shoul really be provided in the catchment.

• In addition to this problem, we have identified that there are also a number of homes in the catchment that

have a problem with their CSCI quality rating. We have calculated that 35% of nursing beds and 32% of

residential car beds in the catchment do not meet the national average score. This could represent further

indication that the nursing care needs of people in the catchment are not being met.

• Finally, we have forecast that without further development the shortfall in nursing care provision in the

catchment could increase to 260 beds by the year 2016.

• The proposed development at Duke Street, Stanton would help the catchment shortfall by providing

nursing supply that should better meet the needs for modern older people.

CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON

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Page 3

2.0 Introduction

• We have been asked to assess the development potential for a nursing home in terms of supply, demand

and suitability at Duke Street in Stanton, Suffolk.

• Our methodology requires an examination of the demand and supply issues within a development

catchment. For the purposes of this report we have undertaken the analysis within a 15-mile drive distance

catchment.

• Our analysis uses census, geo-demographic and land registry data to draw conclusions on elderly care

demand.

• Using in-house statistics on the national care market, we have modelled the current and future need for

care home and nursing beds in the catchment.

• Note that when we refer to national figures this relates to GB and the mapping data used on all of our

maps is provided from Bartholomew. The catchment has been modelled using MapInfo Drivetime

software.

Map 2.0: Catchment used in analysis

Source: Savills Research; MapInfo

CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON

Savills Research

Page 4

3.0 Demographic Analysis

3.1 Census

3.1.1 Population Profile

• The population of the catchment in 2006 was estimated to be 156,700. Of this approximately 18% were of

retirement age (28,900); around 1.5% more than the national average representation (figure 3.1.1).

• Each of the five age groups recorded for the population at retirement age are marginally over-represented

compared to the national average (see Figure 3.1.1).

• Most significantly from a nursing care provision perspective there is an over-representation of people in

the over-80-years category, which is the category most likely to require nursing care facilities. This

category constitutes over 5% of total population with 8,100 people.

Figure 3.1.1: Population Profile

65 - 69 years 70 - 74 years 75 - 79 years 80 - 85 years 85+ years

% Population

15-Miles GB

Source: ONS; Savills Research

3.1.2 Population Projections

• We have taken the ONS latest District population projections by age group and remodelled them

to the catchment (figure 3.1.2).

Figure 3.1.2: Population Projected Growth

100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Year

% Population Change from 2004

GB. All Ages GB. Over 65 GB. Over 80

Stanton All Ages Stanton Over 65 Stanton Over 80

Source: ONS; Savills Research

CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON

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Page 5

• The figures show that the 15-mile catchment is predicted to have population growth above the national

average. The whole population within the catchment is expected to grow by 17%, compared to 14%

nationally, by 2026.

• The retired population is expected to grow significantly faster with growth of 65% in the next two decades.

This is notably higher than the national rate of 46% and will result in total population of almost 47,600

people over 65 years by the year 2026; an increase of 18,700 people.

• The population of over-80-years is seeing growth in population of 83% by 2026, compared to a 66%

growth in the same age group nationally over the same period. This would result in a population of

approximately 14,800 people over-80-years in the catchment (table 3.1.2).

• This is equivalent to an increase of around 2,000 by 2016 and 6,700 by 2026. Clearly, the care needs of

these people will have to be met.

Table 3.1.2: Population Projected Growth

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

All ages 156,700 163,300 170,200 176,900 183,100

Over 65-years 28,900 33,100 39,000 43,100 47,600

Over-80-years 8,100 8,900 10,100 12,000 14,800

Source: ONS; Savills Research

3.1.3 Employment Occupations

• Unemployment in the catchment is low at 2.2%; about 1.2% under the national average.

• The catchment demonstrates a bias towards occupations associated with Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing,

Manufacturing and Wholesale retail industry (table 3.1.3).

Table 3.1.3: Employment Industry

Industry 15-Miles GB

(Ages 16 - 74 years in employment)

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 2,744 3.8 1.6

Mining and Quarrying 88 0.1 0.3

Manufacturing 12,961 17.8 14.8

Utilities 510 0.7 0.7

Construction 5,111 7.0 6.8

Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repairs 13,569 18.6 16.6

Hotels and Restaurants 3,183 4.4 4.8

Transport, Storage, Communications 4,550 6.2 7.0

Financial Intermediation 1,891 2.6 4.7

Real Estate and Business Activities 7,710 10.6 12.8

Public Administration and Defence 4,920 6.7 5.8

Education 4,346 6.0 7.7

Health and Social Work 7,576 10.4 10.9

Other 3,762 5.2 5.2

Source: ONS; Savills Research

CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON

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Page 6

• In line with the above, the Skilled trades, Process plant and Elementary occupations are the most over-

represented groups. These groups account for 27,000 (37%) jobs; 5% more than the national average

(figure 3.1.3).

• Other occupations like Professional Occupations, Technical, Secretarial and Sales are all under

represented by about 5% compared to the national average.

Figure 3.1.3: Employment Occupations

M anagers and

Senior Officials

Professio nal

Occupations

Associate

Professio nal

and Technical

Administration

and Secretarial

Skilled Trades Personal

Service

Sales and

Customer

Service

Process, Plant

and M achine

Operatives

Elementary

Occupations

% 16 - 74 years in employment

15-Miles GB

Source: ONS; Savills Research

3.2 Personicx Geodemographics

• Personicx is a geodemographic classification produced by Acxiom. The household classification

determines the dominant Lifestage and Affluence profile of the catchment at Output Area level. Personicx

also allows us to identify the affluence characteristics of the two lifestages most relevant to the care home

development - Empty Nesters and Retired Seniors.

• Table 3.2.1 shows the individual breakdown of each group. The inset chart assists in identifying under or

over-representation of an individual group, where blue indicates a below average and red indicates an

above average representation.

• Retired Seniors are clearly the most relevant Lifestage for a care home development. In the catchment,

there are a total of about 20,300 Retired Seniors accounting for 31% of all households compared to 26%

nationally. Empty Nesters, which are the future occupiers of care homes also have significant

representation in the catchment. Almost 19,300 households are classified as Empty Nesters and make up

to 30% for the catchment households; this group is about 21% nationally.

• Affluence in the two relevant Lifestage categories have different characteristics. While, High Affluence and

Below Average Affluence are over represented in Retired Seniors group, mid-Affluence groups are over-

represented in the Empty Nesters category. This over-representation in the mid range of Affluence is

demonstrated by the long red spikes in table 3.2.1.

• Households of High Affluence, Average Afluence and Above Average Affluence in Retired Seniors stand

at 11%; similar to national average. For Empty Nesters the same group is about 25% of households

compared to 17% nationally. This suggests that the affluence in the catchment elderly population will

increase in the future.

• The profile has important implications on the kind of elderly care required by the people in the catchment.

In general, about 20% of all households in the catchment are Retired Seniors or Empty Nester of Average

Affluence to High Affluence, this is about 4% higher than the national average.

CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON

Savills Research

Page 7

Table 3.2.1: Profile of Catchment Lifestage with Affluence

Count % % Index

Lifestage and Affluence Grouping

for

area

for

area

for

avg=100

Empty Nesters - High Affluence

667 1 3 30

Empty Nesters - Above Average Affluence

8,097 12 7 184

Empty Nesters - Average Affluence

7,915 12 7 178

Empty Nesters - Below Average Affluence

1,574 2 2 145

Empty Nesters - Low Affluence

1,046 2 2 65

Retired Seniors - High Affluence

2,480 4 3 134

Retired Seniors - Above Average Affluence

2,127 3 3 97

Retired Seniors - Average Affluence

2,935 4 5 93

Retired Seniors - Below Average Affluence

5,449 8 3 291

Retired Seniors - Low Affluence

7,309 11 12 94

Source: Axciom; Savills Research

3.3 Housing Equity

3.3.1 Housing Tenure

• Housing tenure statistics show that owner occupation is above the national average by 4% (figure 3.3.1).

• Households that are owned with a mortgage are over-represented by 1% and households owned outright

account for 3% more homes than the national average.

• During the last 10 years, house prices have increased significantly and this has had a huge impact on the

affordability of care of the older generation. Those who own their own home and many of whom have paid

off their mortgages have seen a vast increase in their equity. This not only means that more people than

ever before haveto pay for their own care when they get older but also that their expectations of the qualiy

that they can afford to get has also increased.

• A total of over 72% of the catchment has equity tied up in their home and almost 32% of all households in

the catchment have completely paid off a mortgage. People who have paid off their mortgages are most

likely to be the more mature age groups, such as Retired Seniors (table 3.3.1).

• Social rented accommodation accounts for 5% fewer homes than the national average.

Table 3.3.1: Housing Tenure

Housing Tenure 15-Miles GB

(All households)

Owned 46,259 72.1 68.3

Owns Outright 20,380 31.8 28.9

Owns with Mortgage or loan 25,607 39.9 38.7

Shared Ownership 272 0.4 0.6

Social Rented 9,812 15.3 19.9

Private Rented 6,277 9.8 9.6

Living Rent Free 1,787 2.8 2.2

Source: ONS; Savills Research

0 100 200 300

CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON

Savills Research

Page 8

Figure 3.3.1: Housing Tenure

Ow ned Ow ns Outright Ow ns w ith

Mortgage or loan

Shared

Ow nership

Social Rented Private Rented Living Rent Free

% Households

15-Miles GB

Source: ONS; Savills Research

3.3.2 House Prices

• Data recorded by the Land Registry has collected the number of residential transactions that have

occurred in the catchment during 2006 by price band (figure 3.3.2). This gives an excellent view of the

house prices in the catchment and therefore the equity available to the retired population.

• Elderly people may own homes at the top end of the scale due to ‘climbing the property ladder’ during their

working lives. Although at some point retired people may downsize during retirement, it is important to

consider this when looking at average values.

• There were over 3,300 house transactions recorded for the catchment during 2006, with only 1% of

houses sold for over £500k, compared to 3% nationally.

Table 3.3.1: House Transactions by Price Band

£0-100k

£100-

150k

£150-

200k

£200-

300k

£300-

400k

£400-

500k

£500-

600k

£600-

800k

£800k-

Over

£1m

15-Miles 4.5 30.8 26.8 22.4 6.7 7.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1

England +

Wales 15.1 26.7 23.1 21.7 7.0 3.1 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.5

Source: Land registry; Savills Research

Figure 3.3.2: House Transactions by Price Band 2006

£0-100k £100-150k £150-200k £200-300k £300-400k £400-500k £500-600k £600-800k £800k-1m Over £1m

15-Miles England + Wales

Source: Land registry; Savills Research

• The data shows an over-representation of houses sold between £100k and £300k, with only 1% of houses

sold over £500K, compared to over 3% nationally. these households accounting for about 71% of

transactions (table 3.3.1).

CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON

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Page 9

• Map 3.3.2 shows that average house prices in the area are predominantly dominated in the range of £150-

200k. However, in the south-west of the catchment the average house price is around £250K-350K.

• This clearly provides an indication of the equity available to people on selling their homes that could be

used for healthcare provision. While the number of social care clients is likely to be low, retired people are

unlikely on the whole to be able to attend a ‘high end’ care offer.

Map 3.3.2: Average House Prices 2006

Source: Land registry; Savills Research

CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON

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Page 10

4.0 Analysis of Existing Supply

4.1 Competition

• There are essentially two kinds of care home or care bed that we examine here. For reasons of clarity in

this report we use their past designations of residential and nursing homes/beds, although they are now

more usually termed respectively as care homes and care homes with nursing. When we refer to care

homes in the catchment we are actually describing homes of both designations.

• Our analysis of care homes shows that there are 41 homes in the catchment; 11 of these are nursing

homes (table 4.1 and map 4.1). There are 541 nursing care beds in the catchment which represents 39%

of the total supply for the Stanton catchment compared to 46% on a national level. This could reflect an

undersupply of nursing care facilities in the catchment, something that is explored further in section 4.2.

• Conversely residential beds in the catchment account for 61% of all beds in the catchment compared to

54% nationally.

• En-suite care rooms have become more popular in recent years and the catchment has a high proportion

of its residential supply provided with en suite facilities. However, nursing care has below average

numbers of en-suites, which reflect inadequate care facilities in the catchment.

• The figures relating nursing beds and particular single and en-suite facilities would suggest that there is a

lack of quality nursing accommodation in the catchment.

Table 4.1: Existing Care Home Provision

15-Miles UK

% total %

Homes 41

Residential Homes

30 73

Nursing Homes

11 27

Residential Beds 838 61

En Suite

419 30

Single

567 41

Shared

271 20

Nursing Beds 541 39

En Suite

307 22

Single

465 34

Shared

76 6

Source: Savills Research

• Map 4.1 shows existing provision for elderly care in the catchment with concentrations in the towns within

the catchment.

• With regards to quality of provision, we have examined data from CSCI and identified homes in the

catchment that are above or below the national average in terms of their overall CSCI rating. In the

catchment, around 35% of the total nursing beds appear to be in lower quality accommodation than the

national average and about 32% of all residential beds do not meet the national average.

• Clearly, this raises concern about whether there is sufficient quality care accommodation available in the

catchment.

CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON

Savills Research

Page 11

Map 4.1: Existing Care Home Provision

Source: Savills Research

4.2 Supply Ratios

• Understanding the supply in context of the local catchment population is simplified using supply ratios. A

supply ratio counts the number of care beds available per 1,000 retired people and 1,000 people over the

age of 80-years in the catchment. These figures are compared to the national average in order to identify

under or over-provision (table 4.2 and figure 4.2).

• Overall our analysis shows that for the Stanton catchment there is under-supply of care beds for the local

area with 48 care beds per 1,000 people over 65 compared to 49 on a national level.

• However if we drill down to this supply type we can see that there is an over-supply of residential beds of 3

beds per 1,000 people over-65-years and an under-supply of nursing care with 4 fewer beds per 1,000

people over-65-years than the rest of the country.

• Using the supply ratio for nursing beds we can see that there is an under-supply of beds, with 67 beds per

1,000 people over-80-years, compared to 79 beds per 1,000 in UK as a whole. This suggests an

immediate need for around 100 beds to meet local demand.

• Currently, it would appear overall that there is sufficient supply of all beds as there are 171 beds per 1,000

for the over-80’s population in the catchment which is inline with national figures. However, it is clear that

the over-supply of residential beds is compensating for the under-supply of nursing beds, It is likely that

CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON

Savills Research

Page 12

some of this residential care stock is being utilised to service the nursing care market that is under-

supplied and therefore people with nursing needs might be living in accommodation that is inadequate for

their personal requirements.

• The overall supply indicates a need for further elderly care accommodation. The proposed nursing care

provision at Stanton would go some way to addressing the gap in supply.

Table 4.2: Care beds in catchment per 1,000 people

Beds per 1,000 Over 65 Beds per 1,000 Over-80

Catchment All beds Residential Nursing All beds Residential Nursing

15-Miles 48 29 19 171 104 67

UK 49 26 23 171 91 79

Source: Savills Research

Figure 4.2: Care beds in catchment per 1,000 people over-80-years

100

150

200

All beds Residential Beds Nursing Beds

No. of beds per 1,000 adults over 80yrs

15-Miles UK

Source: Savills Research

4.3 Catchment Attrition

• Our attrition analysis examines the dynamics of the care home catchment over the last five year period.

Attrition is monitored by the number of homes, or care beds that have been lost to the catchment during

that time (table 4.3 and figure 4.3).

Table 4.3: Care Home Attrition in Catchment 2002-2007

Residential Homes Nursing Homes Total Homes Residential Beds Nursing Beds

Total

Beds

Total Gained 5 0 5 80 0 80

Total Lost 6 3 9 92 16 108

Net Attrition 1 3 4 12 16 28

Source: Savills Research

• The Stanton catchment has been fairly static over the last five years in terms of the change in overall

beds. There has been a net loss of 3 nursing care homes in the catchment over this period, resulting in a

loss of 16 beds in the catchment.

• During the period 2002-2007 there have been 5 opening and 6 closures in the residential care market.

This resulted in a loss of 12 beds.

CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON

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Page 13

• As this is a relatively small catchment it is to be expected that there will be only a little attrition, however

given that the catchment remains under-supplied with nursing care beds this may indicate a need for more

development.

Figure 4.3: Care beds Attrition 2002-2006

100

150

Total Added Total Removed

Total Bedss

Residential Beds Nursing Beds

Source: Savills Research

• However, with no growth in number of beds but an increasing population it will soon result in further under-

supply of nursing care.

4.4 Future Supply

• Figure 4.4 shows the increasing requirement of nursing beds in the future due to catchment population

growth and care attrition.

• If based on the current national provision of nursing beds we assume that there should be about 79

nursing beds for every 1,000 people over the age of 80-years and the attrition rates continue for the next

ten years as they have for the last five, we can see that the gap in the nursing market between the supply

and requirement continue to widen. By 2016, this would still mean an under-supply of nursing beds of

almost 290 beds.

• Even if the attrition does not continue at the same rate and the provision remains same as present day,

the short fall will approximately be about 260 beds by 2016.

Figure 4.4: Predicted Shortfall in Provision in the 15-mile Catchment

509

800

540

400

800

2001 2006 2011 2016

Beds in catchment

Nursing beds beds required

Source: Savills Research

CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON

Savills Research

Page 14

5.0 Catchment Potential

5.1 Demographic Demand

• With a population of approximately 156,700 people, the catchment has 28,900 people of retirement age,

just above the national average. A total of 11% of the total catchment households are classified as

average and above Affluence Retired Seniors.

• Owner occupation is over 4% above the national average for housing tenure, with proportion of homes

outright also above average by almost 3%. This means that there is a significant amount of equity locked

up in property in the district, particularly for the elderly who are the most likely age group to have moved

up the housing ladder and paid off their debt.

• Clearly, owning your own property is an important source of equity for providing care in the late stages of

life and in this catchment given the high proportion of home ownership and the high proportion of retired

affluent people there should be a sufficient demand for further quality care developments in Stanton

catchment.

• Of all housing transactions made in 2006, there is an over-representation of transactions in the £100-

£300k price bracket. This reinforces the fact that there is equity available to be tapped into although this

could limit peope from affording a very high quality offer.

• There are increasing numbers of retired citizens using housing equity to pay for high standard of care.

This means that equity release is an important consideration when determining whether the elderly can

afford to provide their own care.

• The population of retirement age is set to increase by 70% over the next 20 years which will mean there

will be almost 18,700 more people aged 65 or over by the year 2026.

• The demographic skew and the rate of growth of the population suggest that this is a good location to

develop a nursing home. The affluence and tenure statistics indicate that while the majority of retired

people in the catchment are likely to have to provide their own care, they may be limited to the quality of

establishment that they can afford.

5.2 Supply Requirement

• Considering the age, propriety and quality of present care home accommodation in the catchment we may

actually be over estimating the current supply of care facilities that are suitable for the Stanton Catchment

retired population in the Stanton catchment.

• It is important to consider also the lack of nursing care bed supply in the catchment. The undersupply of

nursing care and the over-supply of residential care would suggest that the residential stock is being used

as a substitute for adequate nursing care and people are therefore being inadequately homed.

• Our care bed supply ratios indicate that to meet national levels of provision there should be approximately

79 nursing beds per 1,000 people over the age of 80-years. In the catchment this figure is below average

with just 67 nursing beds per 1,000. Therefore there is an immediate need for around 100 nursing beds in

the catchment and 260 nursing beds by 2016 to meet the growing elderly population.

• Although the catchment is over supplied in terms of residential care there is an immediate need for new

nursing beds to meet the specific catchment demand now and in the future. The current residential supply

will have to be looked at in greater detail to see if it is of high enough quality to serve the catchment

demographic as it stands.

• The proposed development would assist in meeting the shortfall in nursing beds for the five years but

beyond that the catchment would require additional development.

CARE HOME SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR DUKE STREET, STANTON

Savills Research

Page 15

6.0 Important Note

• Finally, in accordance with our normal practice, we would state that this report is for general informative

purposes only and does not constitute a formal valuation, appraisal or recommendation. It is only for the

use of the persons to whom it is addressed and no responsibility can be accepted to any third party for the

whole or any part of its contents. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor

may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior

consent, which will not be unreasonably withheld.

• As is customary with market studies, our findings should be regarded as valid for a limited period of time

and should be subject to examination at regular intervals.

• Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that the data contained in it is correct, no responsibility can

be taken for omissions or erroneous data provided by a third party or due to information being unavailable

or inaccessible during the research period. The estimates and conclusions contained in this report have

been conscientiously prepared in the light of our experience in the property market and information that we

were able to collect, but their accuracy is in no way guaranteed.

(

)

PARKSIDE

West

View

Rose

Cottage

The Maples

St John's Church

Bungalow

The

Blacksmiths

Cottage

Half Acre

31.1m

BM 41.17m

34.6m

Pond

3300

Nurseries Bungalow

Pond

Mill View

Ambleside

Gerogara

Priory Cottage

House

Wesley

Illetas

Southview

Nursery

KEY

Red Line - Site Boundary

Blue - Brownfield

Green - Greenfield

Black Circle - Potential pedestrian access

Purple Circle - Potential vehicular / pedestrian access

0m 50m 100m150m

Duke Street Nursery

Stanton

Local Development Framework

Site Submission

7 May 2008

Additional Information

3. Development Constraints

Policy Constraints: How does the proposal conform with current national, regional or local planning

policies?

The site is a former garden nursery located on the northern side of the village of Stanton beyond the A143

Stanton Bypass. A number of large buildings occupy the central area of the site and the open areas are

overgrown.

The site is designated as Countryside in the Local Plan, although it is located between two

Housing Settlements.

Planning Policy Statement 1 Delivering Sustainable Development 2004 (PPS1) sets out the Government’s

general approach to development. Paragraph 3 identifies sustainable development as the core principle

underpinning planning. In their approach to sustainable development planning authorities should promote the

most efficient use of land through higher density, mixed use development and the use of suitably located

previously developed land and buildings. Planning should seek actively to bring vacant and underused

previously developed land and buildings back into beneficial use to achieve the targets the Government has

set for development on previously developed land.

PPS1 paragraph 27 states that planning authorities should seek to promote urban and rural regeneration to

improve the well being of communities, improve facilities, promote high quality and safe development and

create new opportunities for people living in these communities.

Planning Policy Statement 3 Housing (PPS3) (2006) Paragraph 11 states that ‘planning should deliver a

flexible, responsive supply of land – managed in a way that makes efficient and effective use of land,

including re-use of previously-developed land, where appropriate’. PPS3 states that the national annual

target is that at least 60 per cent of new housing should be provided on previously developed land.

Planning Policy Statement 7 Sustainable Development in Rural Areas 2004 (PPS7) states that one of the key

objectives is to raise the quality of life and the environment in rural areas. This includes focusing most

development in, or next to existing towns or villages and discouraging the development of ‘greenfield’ land.

Paragraph 8 identifies that a key aim of government policies is to aim to offer everyone the opportunity of a

decent home. The needs of all in the community should be recognised, including those in need of affordable

and accessible special needs housing in rural areas.

The site is previously developed land adjacent to a built up area. In principle, redevelopment of the site

accords with government guidance in PPS1, PPS3 and PPS7. The site is sustainably located within walking

distance of Stanton, a Rural Service Centre, and therefore is easily accessible to local amenities and

services. Given the rural location, Stanton is well served in terms of facilities and in particular bus services.

The site should be considered for residential development, potentially including specialist residential care

accommodation (in accord with Policy H7 of the Local Plan).

Residential development of this previously developed site would meet identified needs (see Section 4 below)

in the area and support government objectives. Overall it is considered that a sensitively designed residential

development will have a significantly more positive impact on this rural location than the existing derelict

buildings and overgrown vegetation.

4. Other Information

The Structure Plan sets a target of 440 homes per annum for Bury St Edmunds. The Annual Monitoring

Report (AMR) December 2007 for St Edmundsbury Borough Council identifies that between 1996-2007 on

average 496 dwellings were completed. Between 2004-05 only 170 homes were built and 2005-06 was also

significantly below target at 367 completions.

The Annual Monitoring Report (AMR) December 2007 states that the Suffolk Structure Plan 2001 is the

relevant plan for monitoring purposes as the East of England Plan Regional Spatial Strategy is in draft.

However, as it is at an advanced stage significant weight needs to be attached to it. The Draft East of

England Plan Panel Report June 2006 increased the Regional Spatial Strategy minimum housing targets for

St Edmundsbury from 8,000 to 10,000. Based on completions between 2001-2006 530 homes will need to be

built per annum between 2006-2021 to achieve the minimum targets. The average annual completion of 496

dwellings between 1996-2007 will therefore need to increase significantly

The AMR includes 629 units from unidentified urban capacity sites. However, there can be no certainty that

the UCS unidentified sites are deliverable within the plan period. There is no assessment that the sites meet

the PPS3 paragraph 54 tests of deliverability (i.e are available, suitable and achievable). As such, it is not

considered that the UCS small sites can properly make a contribution to housing supply in the plan period.

The AMR does not demonstrate a five year supply of housing in PPS3 terms. 2007/08 is the only year that

projected completions on identified sites (653 units) exceeds the housing target. However for 2011-2012 the

projected completions on identified sites only contribute 30 dwellings to the supply target. PPS3 states that

LPAs should identify sufficient specific deliverable sites to deliver housing in the first five years. To be

considered deliverable, sites should at the point of adoption of the relevant Local Development Document be

available, suitable and achievable. The Department for Communities and Local Government has produced an

advice note ‘Demonstrating a Five Year Supply of Deliverable Sites’ which advises that information

supporting the site allocation of a planning permission must clearly demonstrate that there is a reasonable

prospect of housing being delivered within 5 years. The advice note also indicates that it may be necessary to

discuss with relevant developers/owners and/or analyse current housing market conditions to make an

informed judgement on this. There is no evidence in the AMR to demonstrate this research. Therefore in

accordance with paragraph 71 of PPS3 Local Planning Authorities ‘should consider favourably planning

applications for housing, having regard to the Policies in PPS3 including the considerations in paragraph 69 ’

where they cannot demonstrate an up-to-date five year supply of deliverable sites.

The discussion above illustrates that there is not a robust 5 year supply of housing for the borough as

required by PPS3. Growth in the urban areas can not be relied upon on its own to meet the housing targets.

Residential development on suitable previously developed sites in rural areas, particularly those on the edge

of housing settlements, should be supported in addition to urban growth to ensure the targets are met.

Paragraph 3.8 of the Social Profile section of the Core Strategy report highlights that the ‘65+ age group

experienced the greatest increase between 1991 and 2001 with a 48% jump’. As a result it is important that

the evidence base assesses the availability of facilities in the borough for this age group.

A report produced by Savills Research Department assessing the care home supply and demand for Stanton

and the surrounding area (see copy attached) concludes that the study catchment is currently under supplied

in care provision. According to the report care bed supply ratios indicate that to meet national levels of

provision there should be approximately 79 nursing beds per 1000 people over 80. There are 67 beds per

1000 people over 80 years in the catchment. Therefore there is an immediate need for around 100 nursing

beds in the catchment and 830 nursing beds by 2028. This need must be acknowledged within the evidence

base.

As well as meeting proven need, the provision of modern nursing care accommodation has other benefits: -

- The provision of modern purpose built accommodation will encourage more people to move into care

accommodation. Often elderly people remain in their homes longer than may be advisable because

of a shortage of quality accommodation choices.

- Encouraging residents into care accommodation reduces hospital visits and reliance on the health

service.

- It releases under-occupied family sized homes back onto the market.

There is therefore an identified need for both general housing and care accommodation. The development of

new facilities to meet these needs must be supported in the Local Development Framework. This site could

make a valuable contribution to meeting these needs.

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