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Global Warming
The Complete Briefing | Fifth Edition
Praise for the Fifth Edition:
‘Still the best undergraduate textbook on climate change. I will definitely be using it on
my course.’
Professor Eric M. Kramer, Bard College at Simon’s Rock
‘If you’re looking for an authoritative, comprehensive – and yet highly accessible – treatment
of climate change science, impacts, and solutions, look no further than Sir John Houghton’s
Global Warming. The former co-chair of the Nobel Peace Prize-winning Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change brings the problem down to Earth, making it both understandable
and engaging. As a man of both faith and science, Sir John makes a compelling case that we
must act now if we are to preserve Earth’s habitability for future generations.’
Michael Mann,
Distinguished Professor, Pennsylvania State University;
author of The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars
‘... a very important update of a major text, marked particularly by the inclusion of data and
illustrations based on the newest IPCC resources. For anyone who needs clear, detailed,
well-evidenced information about global warming, this is an outstandingly useful book.’
Dr Peter G. Knight, Head of Geography Programmes, Keele University
‘... an excellent basis for students and non-scientists to understand climate change with
its manifold impacts and consequences for humankind and for our common planet. The
5th edition has been updated with important findings of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment
Report and can thus be highly recommended as an up-to-date reference work.’
Professor Ottmar Edenhofer,
Chief Economist of Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;
Co-Chair of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
‘Like its previous editions, Sir John Houghton has provided an excellent and concise
summary of the state of knowledge of global warming at an approachable level of technical
detail. I would use this book in either my undergraduate general education course on
global warming and society or the graduate survey course on global climate change.’
Dr James L. Kinter, George Mason University
“The latest edition of Houghton’s Global Warming: The Complete Briefing provides a
comprehensive, accessible overview of what is surely one of the defining challenges of
the 21st century. Houghton’s readable text is grounded in the most definitive science
available, but many of the passages speak to the human face of climate change.
Cambridge University Press
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Sir John Houghton
Frontmatter
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When Houghton discusses the need for action, we can all see the eyes of our children
and grandchildren through his prose.’
Professor Christopher Field, Carnegie Institution for Science;
Co-Chair of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
‘The fifth edition builds on the successful fourth edition. The text starts with an accessible
introduction to the scientific processes that control our planet’s climate, and builds
towards developing technical and political solutions to anthropogenic climate change.
Throughout, appealing graphics and visuals keep the reader engaged. ... the section on
‘Some global economics’ (Chapter 9) is, of all the climate change texts I have used, the
best introduction for students to the question of whether mitigation or adaptation is likely
to be more expensive in the future.’
Professor Jeffrey A. Cunningham, University of South Florida
From re views of previous editions
‘It is diffi cult to imagine how Houghton’s exposition of this complex body of information
might be substantially improved upon ... Seldom has such a complex topic been
presented with such remarkable simplicity, directness and crystalline clarity ... Hought-
on’s complete briefing is without doubt the best briefing the concerned citizen could
hope to find within the pages of a pocketable book.’
John Perry, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
‘I can recommend [this book] to anyone who wants to get a better perspective on the
topic of global warming ... a very readable and comprehensive guide to the changes that
are occurring now, and could occur in the future, as a result of human action ... brings
the global warming debate right up to date ... Read Houghton’s book if you really want to
understand both the scientific and political issues involved.’
William Harston, The Independent
‘... precise account of the science, accompanied by figures, graphs, boxes on specific points,
and summaries at the end of each chapter, with questions for students ... ranges beyond the
science into the diplomacy, politics, economics and ethics of the problem, which together
present a formidable challenge to human understanding and capacity for action.’
Sir Crispin Tickell, The Times Higher Education Supplement
‘... a widely praised book on global warming and its consequences.’
The Economist
‘... very thorough and presents a balanced, impartial picture.’
Jonathan Shanklin, Journal of the British Astronomical Association
‘I would thoroughly recommend this book to anyone concerned about global warming. It
provides an excellent essentially non-technical guide on scientific and political aspects of
the subject. It is an essential briefing for students and science teachers.’
Tony Waters, The Observatory
Cambridge University Press
978-1-107-09167-2 - Global Warming: The Complete Briefing: Fifth Edition
Sir John Houghton
Frontmatter
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www.cambridge.org© in this web service Cambridge University Press
‘For the non-technical reader, the best program guide to the political and scientific
debate is John Houghton’s book Global Warming: The Complete Briefing. With this book
in hand you are ready to make sense of the debate and reach your own conclusions.’
Alan Hecht, Climate Change
‘This is a remarkable book ... It is a model of clear exposition and comprehensible
writing ... Quite apart from its value as a background reader for science teachers and
students, it would make a splendid basis for a college general course.’
Andrew Bishop, Association for Science Education
‘This very readable and informative book is valuable for anyone wanting a broad overview
of what we know about climate change, its potential impacts on society and the natural
world, and what could be done to mitigate or adapt to global warming. To this end,
discussion questions are included at the end of each chapter. The paperback edition is
an especially good value ... Houghton’s compact book is an accessible, well-researched,
and broadly based introduction to the immensely complicated global warming problem.’
Professor Dennis L. Hartmann,
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington
‘... a useful book for students and laymen to understand some of the complexities of the
global warming issue. Questions and essay topics at the end of each chapter provide useful
follow-up work and the range of material provided under one cover is impressive. At a
student-friendly price, this is a book to buy for yourself and not rely on the library copy.’
Allen Perry, Holocene
‘This book is one of the best I have encountered, that deal with climate change and some
of its anthropogenic causes. Well written, well organised, richly illustrated and refer-
enced, it should be required reading for anybody concerned with the fate of our planet.’
Elmar R. Reiter, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
‘Sir John Houghton is one of the few people who can legitimately use the phrase ‘the complete
briefing’ as a subtitle for a book on global warming ...Sir John has done us all a great favour in
presenting such a wealth of material so clearly and accessibly and in drawing attention to the
ethical underpinnings of our interpretation of this area of environmental science.’
Progress in Physical Geography
‘... this complete briefing on global warming is remarkably factual and inclusive. Hought-
on’s concern about planet Earth and its people blends well with his hopes for global
cooperation in concert with the spirit of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.’
Choice
‘... this book is the most comprehensive guide available. Ignore it at your peril.’
The Canadian Field-Naturalist
Cambridge University Press
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Sir John Houghton
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GLOBAL
Cambridge University Press
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Sir John Houghton
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WARMING
The Complete Briefing | Fifth Edition
Sir John Houghton
Cambridge University Press
978-1-107-09167-2 - Global Warming: The Complete Briefing: Fifth Edition
Sir John Houghton
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www.cambridge.org© in this web service Cambridge University Press
University Printing House, Cambridge CB2 8BS, United Kingdom
Cambridge University Press is part of the University of Cambridge.
It furthers the University’s mission by disseminating knowledge in the pursuit of
education, learning and research at the highest international levels of excellence.
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107091672
© J. T. Houghton 1994, 1997, 2004, 2009, 2015
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 1994 by Lion Publishing plc
Second edition published 1997 by Cambridge University Press
Third edition published 2004
Fourth edition published 2009
Fifth edition published 2015
Printed in the United Kingdom by Bell and Bain Ltd
A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication data
Houghton, J. T. (John Theodore), 1931–
Global warming : the complete briefing / Sir John Houghton. – Fifth edition.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-107-09167-2 (Hardback) – ISBN 978-1-107-46379-0 (Paperback)
1. Global warming. 2. Climatic changes. I. Title.
QC981.8.G56H68 2015
363.738
0
74–dc23 2014050241
ISBN 978-1-107-09167-2 Hardback
ISBN 978-1-107-46379-0 Paperback
Additional resources for this publication at www.cambridge.org/GW5
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy
of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication,
and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain,
accurate or appropriate.
Cambridge University Press
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Sir John Houghton
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To my grandchildren,
Daniel, Hannah, Esther, Max,
Jonathan, Jemima and Sam
and their generation
Cambridge University Press
978-1-107-09167-2 - Global Warming: The Complete Briefing: Fifth Edition
Sir John Houghton
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Cambridge University Press
978-1-107-09167-2 - Global Warming: The Complete Briefing: Fifth Edition
Sir John Houghton
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Contents
Preface page xv
1 Global warming and climate change 1
Is the climate changing? 2
The last 40 years 2
What is global warming? 9
Adaptation and mitigation 10
International cooperation in climate science 10
Uncertainty and response 14
Questions 15
Further reading and reference 15
2 The greenhouse effect 17
How the Earth keeps warm 18
The greenhouse effect 19
Pioneers of the science of the greenhouse effect 22
Mars and Venus 24
The ‘runaway’ greenhouse effect 26
The enhanced greenhouse effect 27
Summary 29
Questions 29
Further reading and reference 30
3 The greenhouse gases 32
Which are the most important greenhouse gases? 33
Radiative forcing 33
Carbon dioxide and the carbon cycle 33
The biological pump in the oceans 41
What we can learn from carbon isotopes 42
Future emissions of carbon dioxide 44
Feedbacks in the biosphere 45
Other greenhouse gases 46
Gases with an indirect greenhouse effect 53
Particles in the atmosphere 53
Cambridge University Press
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Global warming potentials 59
Estimates of radiative forcing 60
Summary 60
Questions 62
Further reading and reference 63
4 Climates of the past 65
The last hundred years 66
Upper atmospheric temperature observed by satellites 68
Warming of the ocean 73
Changes in sea level 76
The last thousand years 77
The past million years 80
Palaeoclimate reconstruction from isotope data 81
How stable has past climate been? 84
Summary 87
Questions 88
Further reading and reference 88
5 Modelling the climate 90
Modelling the weather 91
Setting up a numerical atmospheric model 94
Data to initialise the model 96
Seasonal forecasting 99
Weather forecasting and chaos 99
A simple model of the El Niño 102
The climate system 104
Forecasting for the African Sahel region 105
Feedbacks in the climate system 106
Cloud radiative forcing 110
Models for climate prediction 112
Climate feedback comparisons 113
Validation of the model 116
The ocean’s deep circulation 117
Comparison with observations 120
Modelling of tracers in the ocean 121
Is the climate chaotic? 125
Regional climate modelling 126
The future of climate modelling 127
Summary 128
Questions 129
Further reading and reference 130
x CONTENTS
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Sir John Houghton
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6 Climate change for the twenty-first century and beyond 133
Emission scenarios 134
Representative Concentration Pathways 136
Model projections 137
Projections of global average temperature 138
Simple climate models 138
Equivalent carbon dioxide (CO
2
e) 142
Regional patterns of climate change 143
Changes in climate extremes 149
Regional climate models 153
Longer-term climate change 155
Atlantic Meridonal Overturning Circulation 155
Other factors that might influence climate change 157
Does the Sun’s output change? 158
Summary 159
Questions 159
Further reading and reference 160
7 The impacts of climate change 162
A complex network of changes 163
Sensitivity, adaptive capacity and vulnerability: some definitions 163
How much will sea level rise? 164
Thermal expansion of the oceans 167
Impacts in coastal areas 169
Increasing human use of fresh water resources 175
The impact of climate change on fresh water resources 178
Desertification 183
Impact on agriculture and food supply 184
The carbon dioxide ‘fertilisation’ effect 185
The impact on ecosystems 187
Modelling the impact of climate change on world food supply 188
Forest–climate interactions and feedbacks 195
The impact on human health 199
Heatwaves in Europe and India, 2003 200
Adaptation to climate change 201
Impacts on Africa 202
Costing the impacts of climate change 205
The insurance industry and climate change 207
Summary 212
Questions 213
Further reading and reference 214
CONTENTS xi
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Sir John Houghton
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8 Why should we be concerned? 218
Earth in the balance 219
Exploitation 219
‘Back to nature’ 220
The technical fix 221
The unity of the Earth 221
Daisyworld and life on the early Earth 224
Environmental values 226
Stewards of the Earth 228
Equity – intergenerational and international 229
The will to act 231
Summary 233
Questions 234
Further reading and reference 235
9 Weighing the uncertainty 238
The scientific uncertainty 239
The reasons for scientific uncertainty 240
The IPCC Assessments 240
Narrowing the uncertainty 244
Space observations of the climate system 245
Sustainable development 247
Sustainable development: how is it defined? 248
The Precautionary Principle 250
Principles for international action 251
The Rio Declaration 1992 252
Damage from climate change and its cost 252
Integrated Assessment and Evaluation 253
Why not wait and see? 258
Summary 259
Questions 260
Further reading and reference 261
10 A strategy for action to avoid dangerous climate change 263
The Climate Convention 264
Extracts from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 264
Stabilisation of emissions 266
The Montreal Protocol 266
The Kyoto Protocol 267
The Kyoto mechanisms 270
Carbon trading 271
xii CONTENTS
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Forests 272
The world’s forests and deforestation 273
Reduction in sources of greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide 276
The choice of target level 279
Some recent reports on the climate’s future from world bodies 280
Stabilisation of carbon dioxide concentrations 281
Realising the Climate Convention Objective 284
Summary 287
Questions 288
Further reading and reference 289
11 Energy and transport for the future 291
World energy demand and supply 292
Future energy projections 293
Future energy scenarios to 2050 294
Energy intensity and carbon intensity 296
Projections for energy investment 298
A long-term energy strategy 300
Buildings: energy conservation and efficiency 300
Where are we heading? Components of energy strategy 301
Thermodynamic efficiencies 303
Efficiency of appliances 304
Insulation of buildings 305
Example of a ZED (Zero Emission Development) 306
Energy and carbon dioxide savings in transport 307
Technologies for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from motor vehicles 310
Energy and carbon dioxide savings in industry 310
Carbon-free electricity supply 311
Hydropower 315
Biomass energy 316
Biomass projects in rural areas in the developing world 318
Biofuels 320
Wind energy 321
Wind power on Fair Isle 322
Energy from the Sun: solar heating 322
Solar water heating 323
Solar energy in building design 324
Energy from the Sun: concentrating solar power 324
Energy from the Sun: solar photovoltaics 326
CONTENTS xiii
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The photovoltaic solar cell 326
Local energy provision in Bangladesh 328
Other renewable energies 328
The support and financing of carbon-free energy 329
Policy instruments 331
Technology for the longer term 332
Fuel cell technology 335
Power from nuclear fusion 336
A zero carbon future 336
Key findings from the IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives 2014 338
Summary 340
Questions 341
Further reading and reference 343
12 The global village 346
Global warming – global pollution 347
Sustainability – also a global challenge 347
Not the only global problem 349
The challenge to all sections of community 351
What the individual can do 354
The goal of environmental stewardship 354
Questions 356
Further reading and reference 357
Acknowledgements for figures and photos 359
Glossary 367
Index 372
xiv CONTENTS
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Sir John Houghton
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Preface
Global Warming is a topic that increasingly occupies the attention of the world. Is it really
happening? If so, how much of it is due to human activities? How far will it be possible to adapt
to changes of climate? What action to combat it can or should we take? How much will it cost?
Or is it already too late for useful action? This book sets out to provide answers to all these
questions by providing the best and latest information available.
I was privileged to chair or co-chair the Scientific Assessments for the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) from its inception in 1988 until 2002. During this period the IPCC
published three major comprehensive reports – in 1990, 1995 and 2001 – that have influenced
and informed those involved in climate change research and those concerned with the impacts of
climate change. In 2007, a fourth assessment report was produced, and in 2014 the fifth
assessment report was published. It is the extensive new material in this latest report that has
provided the basis for the substantial revision necessary to update this fifth edition.
The IPCC reports have been widely recognised as the most authoritative and comprehensive
assessments on a complex scientific subject ever produced by the world’s scientific community.
On the completion of the first assessment in 1990, I was asked to present it to Prime Minister
Margaret Thatcher’s cabinet – the first time an overhead projector had been used in the Cabinet
Room in Number 10 Downing Street. In 2005, the work of the IPCC was cited in a joint
statement urging action on climate change presented to the G8 meeting in that year by the
Academies of Science of all G8 countries plus China, India and Brazil. The world’s top scientists
could not have provided stronger approval of the IPCC’s work. An even wider endorsement
came in 2007 when the IPCC was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize.
Many books have been published on global warming. My choice of material has been much
influenced by the many lectures I have given in recent years to professional, student and
general audiences.
The strengths of this book are that it is:
up-to-date with the latest reliable, accurate and understandable information about all
aspects of the global warming problem for students, professionals and interested or con-
cerned citizens.
accessible to both scientists and non-scientists. Although there are many numbers in the
book – I believe quantification to be essential – there are no mathematical equations. Some
important technical material is included in boxes.
comprehensive, as it moves through the basic science of global warming, impacts on
human communities and ecosystems, economic, technological and ethical considerations
and policy options for action both national and international.
Cambridge University Press
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appropriate as a general text for students, from high-school level up to university graduate.
Questions and problems for students to consider and to test their understanding of the
material are included in each chapter.
Its simple and effective visual presentation of the vast quantities of data available on
climate change ensures that readers can see how conclusions are made, without being
overwhelmed. Illustrations are available online.
Over the 25 years since the inception of the IPCC, our understanding of climate change has
much increased and significant changes in climate due to human activities have been experi-
enced. Further, studies of the feedbacks that determine the climate response have shown an
increasing likelihood of enhanced response, so leading over these years to greater concern
about the future impact of climate change on both human populations and ecosystems. Can
much be done to alleviate the impact or mitigate future climate change? Later chapters of the
book address this question and demonstrate that the technology is largely available to support
urgent and affordable action. They also point to the many other benefits that will accrue to all
sectors of society as the necessary action is taken. However, what seems lacking as yet is the will
to take that action with sufficient urgency and commitment.
As I complete this revised edition I want to express my gratitude, first to those who inspired
me and helped with the preparation of the earlier editions, with many of whom I was also
involved in the work of the IPCC or of the Hadley Centre. I also acknowledge those who have
assisted with the material for this edition or who have read and helpfully commented on my
drafts, in particular, Averil Macdonald, Myles Allen, Kathy Maskell, Stephen Belcher, Jason
Lowe, David Parker, Peter Stott, Rachel McCarthy, Fraser Lott, Michael Sanderson, Nicola
Golding, Fiona O'Connor, Fiona Carroll, Richard Betts, Philip Bett, Mick Carter, Ben Booth, and
Sue Whitehouse. My thanks are also due to Catherine Flack, Matt Lloyd, Anna-Marie Lovett and
Jo Endell-Cooper of Cambridge University Press for their competence and courtesy as they
steered the book through its gestation and production.
Finally, I owe an especial debt to my wife, Sheila, who gave me strong encouragement to
write the book in the first place, and who has continued her encouragement and support
through the long hours of its production.
xvi PREFACE
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Sir John Houghton
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