The Model Waiver D factor was estimated based upon waiver utilization reported in the CMS372 reports for the
years July 1, 2014 to June 30, 2015, July 1, 2015 to June 30, 2016, and July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2017 for the
Environmental Accessibility Adaptations and Respite services, which are the most recent waiver years with
“average” utilization. State fiscal years 17/18 and 18/19 had low utilization and were thus not included in the
calculation. The Transition Case Management services had no utilization during those three years. The state is
projecting those services to be utilized 100% by new recipients. Transition Case Management is being estimated
for an average utilization of 6 units per recipient (1 per month for 6 months). No inflation factor is applied to
average cost.
Factor D' Derivation. The estimates of Factor D' for each waiver year are included in Item J-1. The basis of these
estimates is as follows:
The Model waiver D prime factor was estimated based upon non-waiver utilization reported in the CMS372
reports for the years July 1, 2015 to June 30, 2016, July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2017, and July 1, 2017 to June 30,
2018. The Medicare Part D expenses are not covered by Florida Medicaid and do not factor into these
calculations. The state is using different reference years than for the D factor to better reflect current Model
waiver recipient non-waiver service utilization. In SFY14/15 a waiver enrollee had a severe and chronic co-
morbid condition that significantly increased non-waiver medical costs. Current enrollees do not have any
outlier medical conditions. A calculation of 4.4% was used to project inflationary costs. The cost inflation factor
was calculated by averaging the increase in costs from Federal Fiscal Year 2016 to Federal Fiscal Year 2018 of
the National Medicaid Benefit Expenditures per Enrollee Estimates, as published in the 2017 Actuarial Report on
the Financial Outlook for Medicaid published by the CMS Office of the Actuary.
ii.
Factor G Derivation. The estimates of Factor G for each waiver year are included in Item J-1. The basis of these
estimates is as follows:
The Model waiver G factor estimate was determined using three year average cost per year for the years July 1,
2016 to June 30, 2017, July 1, 2017 to June 30, 2018, and July 1, 2018 to June 30, 2019, utilizing hospital
inpatient DRG pricing and nursing home per-diem rates. Daily rates were multiplied by 365 to estimate the cost
to the state for an entire year of inpatient service. The state is using different reference years than for the D
factor to reflect current hospital DRG costs and nursing home per-diem rates. A calculation of 4.4% was used to
project inflationary costs. The cost inflation factor was calculated by averaging the increase in costs from
Federal Fiscal Year 2016 to Federal Fiscal Year 2018 of the National Medicaid Benefit Expenditures per
Enrollee Estimates, as published in the 2017 Actuarial Report on the Financial Outlook for Medicaid published
by the CMS Office of the Actuary.
iii.
Factor G' Derivation. The estimates of Factor G' for each waiver year are included in Item J-1. The basis of these
estimates is as follows:
The Model waiver G prime factor was determined using three year average cost per year for the years July 1,
2016 to June 30, 2017, July 1, 2017 to June 30, 2018, and July 1, 2018 to June 30, 2019, using non-institutional
costs to Medicaid for individuals meeting waiver enrollment criteria. Medicare Part D expenses are not covered
by Florida Medicaid and do not factor into these calculations. The state is using the same reference years as the
G factor. A calculation of 4.4% was used to project inflationary costs. The cost inflation factor was calculated
by averaging the increase in costs from Federal Fiscal Year 2016 to Federal Fiscal Year 2018 of the National
Medicaid Benefit Expenditures per Enrollee Estimates, as published in the 2017 Actuarial Report on the
Financial Outlook for Medicaid published by the CMS Office of the Actuary.
In the previous waiver cycle, an individual was enrolled in the Model Waiver with a disease state that
significantly increased Factor G’ costs. That particular individual is no longer enrolled in the waiver, and there
are no individuals enrolled in the waiver that necessitate the increased Factor G’ estimates that were included in
the previous waiver cycle. The Factor G’ estimate included in the renewal request more accurately aligns with
current and anticipated waiver enrollment.
iv.
Appendix J: Cost Neutrality Demonstration
J-2: Derivation of Estimates (4 of 9)
Application for 1915(c) HCBS Waiver: FL.40166.R06.00 - Jul 01, 2020 Page 115 of 118
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